Global Oil and Gas Industry Perspectives: Threats and Opportunities in the Context of International Climate Change Policies

1. Introduction

Economist Fritz Schumacher[1] who, starting 1950, advised the British National Coal Board[2], argues that “there is no substitute for energy, the whole edifice of modern life is built upon it. Although energy can be bought and sold like any other commodity, it is not just another commodity, but the precondition of all commodities, a basic factor equally with air, water, and Earth.”[3] Nevertheless, adverse effects appear to exist with all the benefits of energy. Earth and humanity face mounting ecological strains due to diverse causes,  and energy seems to bear a sizeable share of the direct responsibility, be it for the increasing air contamination[4] or the fateful climate change. The other environmental issues possibly of no less importance to energy are water contamination,[5] [6] the decline of diversity in the ecosystems,[7] and the spawning of waste.[8] The world is responding with many policies and stratagems. However, much more appear to be required to secure a prompt passage to a greener economy and cleaner surroundings worldwide.[9]

Furthermore, it is estimated that climate change will cost the global economy between 1% and 3.3% of its GDP in 2060.^[10] The coming decades may be crucial for the passage to a safer and cleaner environment. Expectations are that global GDP will double over the coming two decades with twofold urban inhabitants by the end of the next four decades. Hence more tremendous environmental pressures could ensue.^[11]

With all of the above in mind, what are the probable implications for the oil and gas industry? Are the twilights of the fossil fuel gods really upon us this time? As predicted since 1954 by a late Oxford economics professor.[12] Similar to what happened with king coal[13] in the past century, will climate change accelerate the decline and dethroning of oil and gas from the supremacy of the energy kingdom of the globe? What solution paths exist? How is the oil and gas industry responding? What roles are to be played by leaders of this deep-rooted business, among others? Were there similar significant past defiances in this trade’s history that can serve as an inspiration?

2.      Methods

Initially, the paper briefly investigates the historical background of global environmental issues in general, particularly climate change. The source used is Yergin’s world history of Oil Pulitzer prize winner book “The Prize,” which was part of my Oil and Gas course study materials. The information source on the landmark Paris agreement was the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC). Also, to demonstrate and attempt to prove the impending gravity of the climate problem, the work exposes the relevant alarming information on the surging Green House Gas (GHG) emissions concentrations as presented in the last Greenhouse Gas Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). A United Nations (UN) climate change press release is also advanced to confirm the daunting tendencies based on a recent full synthesis report’s findings and clearly show the UN’s urging nations to promptly and intensively work to limit global warming to the agreed targets. The paper specifies the critical targeted levels of CO2 emissions reduction as advanced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It draws attention to the considerable detrimental swell of the GHG emissions expected by 2030 to prove that more urgent actions are required globally.

Further, to focus on the oil and gas industry, the research refers to the International Energy Agency (IEA) to get the specific industry emissions footprint and pinpoints some avenues to reduce it first based on IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS). Also included are the specific findings of a  UN 2021 Production Gap report which warned and explained that hydrocarbons production is dangerously exceeding the set levels compliant with climate change abatement and that it will continue to grow minimum up to 2040. All of that despite governments’ significantly augmented climate targets and net-zero pledges. The paper then moves to expose the relevant drastic measures and expected developments touching the fossil fuel industry as proposed in IEA’s 2021 roadmap to Net-Zero by 2050 for the global energy sector. Besides, to unveil their apparently insufficient level of attention, the review highlights some information on the weak investments by oil and gas firms in fields related to emissions reduction, clean and renewable energy.

The compilation then exposes the seemingly differing reactions among the leading industry players on handling the global threat vis-à-vis the UN-supported report. These were obtained from a Bloomberg news article. Also, the research showcases findings from a CNBC article to demonstrate some effects of this threat on the internal organizational and investors side of the oil and gas firms. It relates the trend within firms towards reduction of focus on fossil fuels by connecting top executives pay to Environment Social and Governance  (ESG) targets. It also brings forth some facts proving that investors are increasingly focusing on ESG and exerting influence on companies to reduce their global carbon footprint and the associated operational and bottom-line risks. Furthermore, sourced from the UNFCC, the relevant outcome of the COP26 climate conference is presented to highlight climate actions that were agreed upon, which could considerably affect the sector.

To identify some broad industry challenges, the compilation resorts to a survey performed by the University of Houston energy fellows and published by Forbes. The survey identified three salient tendencies that would weigh on the industry for many years to come. It also indicates that petroleum companies find difficulties luring top-level talents to join their ranks. Further, the Houston study signals several initiatives on the responses of prime industry firms to the climate change threat. However, the study concludes that jobholders and young prospective employees believe that what the firms are doing on the climate change threat is not enough, noting that the combined financial resources of the industry count in multi-billion dollars and exceed the financial capabilities of many nations.

In addition, the paper screens the findings of Deloitte’s 2021 Industry Outlook to discern specific challenges facing the shale oil and gas business and the long-term industry tendencies following the COVID-19 pandemic and the last oil slump. The acceleration of the energy transition trend and the essential role of the digital transformation represent utter examples. Also, the serious challenges on the natural gas amid the energy transition were highlighted from the same Deloitte document.

Additionally, to perceive the long-term challenges, the work reverts to a study by Mckinsey targeted towards the oil and gas industry. The study demonstrates that the consultant expects an even more demanding scene for the industry on the macro scale around the end of the next decade. It concludes by highlighting the essential success criteria for firms to make it through the energy transition. Noting that the industry’s long-term prospects look very challenging and uncertain, the paper issues some recommendations for the concerned decision-makers that could assist in safely navigating this critical period.

In continuation, to explore the many opportunities and possible avenues available for the petroleum industry, the research resorts to the analysis and findings of a report by the IEA targeting the energy transition in the oil and gas sector. It also screens the relevant findings and directives of the Emissions Gap Report 2021, the United Nations Environemnt Program (UNEP) document.

Moreover, and in search for vigorously stimulating stories and pertinent lessons from the past, the research delves again into Yergin’s epic history of oil book “The Prize.”  The intention is to corroborate that the history of the world and the oil industry, particularly starting from the mid-nineteenth century, is ripe with imposing stories of accomplishments, of the industry’s capacity of entrepreneurship and inventive planning, of massive mobilization, of devising global agreements, of technological breakthroughs, and of ingenuity in facing severe universal challenges of different sorts among others. These accounts might be inspiring and beneficial in asserting that the world governments and the O&G industry can nowadays and have successfully addressed such massive issues of almost the same scale as the climate stalemate we are facing today.

Lastly, the study endeavors to derive meaningful guidance, recommendations, and conclusions from the various parts of the research.

3.      Background

Actually, it is not the first time the oil and gas industry and the world have faced challenging environmental issues. The start of the 1960s saw the advent of the ecological issue to the political scene. For instance, air pollution constrained utilities worldwide to shift from coal to less polluting oil. Notable is New York’s 1966 air pollution crisis and the subsequent coal-burning restrictions, plus the legislation that ensued.[14] Importantly, the global warming threat has been identified since the early 1970s. Then, the widely acclaimed book “The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on “The Predicament of Mankind” published in 1972 seemed to issue the first warning, some fifty years ago.[15] The work prominently contends that modern industrialized societies’ way of life cannot be maintained at current levels if several global principal tendencies persist without any reduction in intensity or strength. These tendencies relate to increases in population, industrial development, environmental defilement, edible production, energy expenditure, and natural resources depletion, not excluding oil and gas. The book argues that “the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next hundred years.”[16] Strikingly, since 1972 the work forewarned of the detrimental environmental effects resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels and the accumulation of CO2 in the air. More importantly, it exhibited an unprecedented apprehension about “global warming.” However, the exact time when those drastic effects would occur was quite unsure. Noteworthy, the work also cautioned about the dwindling of natural resources.[17]

Regrettably, it was not until four decades later that 196 nations multilaterally set a crucial global warming consensus goal at the COP21 in Paris. The historical and legally binding Paris Agreement of December 12, 2015, was born. It was effectively enacted starting November 4, 2016.[18]

4.      The Global Problem

Indeed, the last Greenhouse Gas Bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization[19](WMO) confirmed the alarming trend of increasing Green House Gases (GHG) present in the atmosphere. The most significant GHG, Carbon Dioxide (CO2), concentration reached 149% of the level in 1750 and hit the new record of 413.2 Parts Per Million (PPM) in 2020. Similarly, the Methane (CH4) concentrations have increased 262% and reached 1889 Parts Per Billion (PPB), and those of Nitrous Oxide (N₂O) 123% of the pre-industrial levels. Over the last ten years, the mean annual absolute increase reached 2.4 ppm per year for CO2, 8.0 ppb for CH4, and 0.99 ppb per year for N₂O. Markedly, Carbon Dioxide ranks first in contribution and accounts for 66% of the climate heat-trapping effect, mainly due to burning fossil fuels and cement production.^[20]

On the other hand, in its UN climate change press release of October 25, 2021, the UN confirmed the findings of its earlier full synthesis report that alarming tendencies persist. It urged the parties to the Paris Agreement to swiftly increase their efforts to constrain the global warming escalation to less than 2 degrees Celsius (C) or even 1.5 degrees over pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21^st century. Meeting the warming limit is essential to avoid the expected drastic consequences of global destabilization and lasting anguish, primarily amid nations with the most negligible contribution to the atmospheric GHG releases.[21]

In addition, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers that to restrict worldwide mean temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C, the CO2 emissions have to be cut by 45% in 2030 or a cut of 25% to constrain overall warming to 2C. If the world does not meet reduction targets by 2030, then a more drastic and costly reduction shall have to be enacted to offset the delays towards achieving a net-zero emissions globe.[22]

Furthermore, on the pivotal 2030 anticipations, a considerable GHG emissions swell of 16 percent over 2010 levels is expected, based on all the Nationally Determined Contribution[23] (NDC) plans submitted by 192 sides and amalgamated together. Consequently, that emissions surge could engender a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees C by 2100.[24] This warming level considerably exceeds the objectives of the Paris Agreement and could, in turn, marshal sudden significant damage to Earth’s climate. Moreover, even if properly executed, nations’ net-zero emissions pledges could curb climate heat to just 2.2C. Also, what raises more concerns is that several nations’ climate action schemes foresee a delayed act not before 2030.[25] All of the above appears to demonstrate that a more urgent stance is required.

5.      Oil and Gas under the Spotlight

The International Energy Agency (IEA) argues that the activities undertaken to extract oil and gas from wells and dispatch them to customers are responsible for 15% of the worldwide energy-linked GHG emissions. Interestingly, the agency finds that reducing methane leakages to the atmosphere during this process constitutes the most significant and cost-effective manner for the petroleum industry to cut these emissions.^[26] Alone, methane emissions reduction potential under the 2018-2030 Sustainable Development Scenario accounts for 31.1% of the 2030 total average global emissions intensity change of oil and gas operations. According to the energy agency, Russia, followed by the USA, is leading by far oil and gas producers with the total amount of methane emissions.[27]

Furthermore, the UN’s 2021 Production Gap Report released on October 20 warned that hydrocarbons production is dangerously exceeding the set levels compliant with climate change abatement.  It highlighted that in 2030, governments still intend to generate from fossil fuels over twice the quantity that could restrict global warming to the target of 1.5 degrees C set by the Paris Agreement. All of that despite their significantly augmented climate targets and net-zero pledges. Else, while this year’s report comprises profiles of fifteen major producing countries, it confirms governments’ projections of a rise in worldwide oil and gas output and a slight reduction in coal production during the coming twenty years. Therefore, the report expects that altogether hydrocarbons production shall continue to grow minimum up to 2040.^[28] However, the Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assured that although it is becoming more urgent by the day, time did not run out to constrain the long-range global warming to 1.5C over pre-industrial levels. Nevertheless, he incited governments to take the necessary actions at the COP26 UN Climate Conference in Glasgow: “governments must step up, taking rapid and immediate steps to close the fossil fuel production gap and ensure a just and equitable transition.”^[29]

In addition, the findings of the UN’s 2021 Production Gap Report provide a more specific view of the situation. It confirmed that actual production schedules shall ensue 240 percent additional coal, 57 percent more oil, and 71 percent extra gas in 2030 compared to the set targets compliant with 1.5 degrees C warming. Also, in contrast with the Paris Agreement, universal gas production is anticipated to grow mostly in the coming twenty years. Furthermore, and in line with this trend, the report signals that producing nations have commanded, counting from the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, over 300 billion dollars in fresh money aimed at hydrocarbon-related actions above what they have diverted for clean energy activities. Conversely, for G20 nations and leading multipartite development banks, the report points to a drop in global public finances for hydrocarbons, with a third of these parties adopting schemes that preclude any upcoming production of hydrocarbons. Nevertheless, the report emphasizes the need for prompt action in this regard: “Global coal, oil, and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C.”^[30]

6.      A Net-Zero Roadmap

In continuation, a prime global energy authority had drawn a path to climate stabilization while proposing more specific and resolute measures. Earlier in May 2021, the IEA released a comprehensive 400 mileposts roadmap to net-zero^[31] for the worldwide energy sector. Notably, it stipulates an immediate halt of investments in new hydrocarbon fuel supply ventures and the cancellation of all final investment resolutions for new coal plants that do not include emissions abatement. Also, it requires stopping the sales of new internal combustion engine-powered cars by 2035 and a net-zero emissions electricity supply by 2040. Besides, it expects a considerable impact from progress in the fields of advanced batteries,^[32] electrolyzers for hydrogen,^[33] and direct capture and storage of air.^[34] Crucially, the roadmap’s sustainable development scenario foresees by 2050 a drop in the share of fossil fuels from around eighty percent of total energy supply to almost twenty percent. The remaining fossil fuels shall be restricted to use in merchandise where carbon is a constituent like plastics, in carbon capture equipped works, and in fields where the possibility of using technologies of low harmful effluences is nil.^[35]

On the other hand, the IEA plan confirms that until 2019 the invested funds by oil and gas firms in fields related to emissions reduction, clean, and renewable energy did not exceed a little more than two percent of the total invested capital. This small percentage is spread mostly over offshore/onshore wind and solar photovoltaic technologies. A tiny share is spent on Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and biofuels. On top of that, the document indicates that some firms have also ventured into novice fields via the acquisition of established side businesses like electricity distribution, electric vehicle charging, and batteries while boosting efforts on research and development.^[36] Yet, much more appears to be needed to achieve significant progress in facing climate change.

Furthermore, the roadmap projects significant repercussions on the nations and firms that produce fossil fuels. Supplies to the much-contracted hydrocarbons market are anticipated to be constrained to a few low-cost producing countries. However, the part of OPEC is to increase to a record level from 37% lately to 52% by 2050.^[37]

Additionally, the program anticipates that the persistent energy security defiances shall be supplemented by new ones resulting from the growing significance of electrification, such as sporadic supply from several renewable sources and cyber threats. Also, potentially obstructing the transition are the threats of price fluctuation and the perturbation of supply resulting from the increasing reliance on crucial minerals essential for pollution-free energy technologies and infrastructure.^[38] In short, the energy transition path seems ripe with obstacles and challenging milestones, even if it includes the rigorous implementation of the proposed net-zero roadmap.

7.      International Oil Companies (IOCs) and Producing Nations

In fact, patterns of profound splits among industry players on handling the universal ultimatum appear to emanate from the reactions of fossil fuel firms to the UN-supported report about climate change. The large western European corporations already committed to lowering emissions supported the report’s central theme. The US fossil fuel segment averted commitment to initiating a fundamental shift while focusing on the idea of energy security. Canada’s crude industry, seen as a source of one of the most polluting oils on Earth, expressed confidence in the continuing growth of demand for hydrocarbon fuels in the future.^[39]

In Asia, the initial responses were also mixed. Being already engaged in coal placements, the Japanese gigantic Sumitomo Corp. trading firm emphasized its current endeavors to reduce CO2 emissions. It indicated that it should look into strategies and actions according to the long-range prospects on climate change and its worldwide alleviation tendency.   In China, the world’s biggest CO2 emitting country, contacted sources among the most significant hydrocarbon producers preferred not to comment promptly. Australia held to its climate policy with its prime minister reiterating his demand for a response based on technology rather than additional taxes. Worth mentioning that the country is one of the leading hydrocarbon fuels exporters besides being the first in per-capita pollution. The Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association indicated that its oil and gas producing firms are at the forefront in developing such decarbonization technologies as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).^[40]

On the other hand, tying top executives’ pay to Environment Social and Governance^[41] (ESG) targets seems to have become a reality and a trend within majors in the oil and gas industry, not to mention the other leading public corporations in different sectors. Starting in 2018, the European oil giant Royal Dutch Shell assigned 10% of Long-Term Incentive Plans (LTIP) to cut carbon emissions. British Petroleum (BP) similarly adopted ESG gauges in the annual bonus in addition to LTIP. Among the US stationed majors who followed suit, Chevron and Marathon Oil firms have inserted GHG objectives to their executive remunerations.^[42]

Furthermore, investors are seemingly becoming increasingly concentrated on ESG. A growing number of those influential business persons are pressuring the fossil fuel industry to reduce its worldwide carbon footprint and the related operational and bottom-line risks.  The example of ExxonMobil’s shareholder meeting in the past spring is remarkable. The hedge fund “Engine No.1”, a climate campaigner, managed to secure three board members in its board of directors.  That development could eventually decrease Exxon’s dependence on businesses founded on carbon and drive it further towards investing in renewable sources such as solar and wind, which simultaneously could ensue to ESG based compensations and incentive plans.^[43] Indeed, if consistent and expanding enough within the industry, such tendencies may effectively contribute to assuring it a smooth and safe energy transition.

8.      COP26 and Carbon Emissions

Meanwhile, in the Glasgow COP26 climate conference, there has been presumably no apparent direct mention of the oil and gas industry in the final decisions. However, climate actions were agreed upon that could significantly affect the sector. The conference hosted a key event on methane for the first time, resulting in the Global Methane Pledge that comprises up to 40% of universal methane emissions and 60% of worldwide Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Nations signing the pledge commit to willingly adopt actions that share at least a 30% reduction in worldwide methane emissions by 2030 measured from a 2020 reference level. If achieved, that reduction can reduce warming by 0.2 degrees C by 2050.^[44]

Also, a new Glasgow Breakthrough Agenda was concluded to boost cooperation between countries and businesses to drastically mount and accelerate the maturing and distribution of non-GHG emitting technologies and make them more cost-competitive by 2030. The main targets are the most polluting five sectors of power, road transport, hydrogen, steel, and agriculture. Altogether they are responsible for over 50% of total worldwide emissions. Also, an unprecedented international partnership declared that $8.5 billion could be disbursed over the coming 3-5 years to back an Accelerated Just Energy Transition in South Africa. Worth mentioning that the country is the globe’s most carbon-heavy electricity producer.  Lastly, the entire conference net-zero pledges have reached 90% of the world economy. Notable is India’s announcement of an aspirant package of commitments for 2030 comprising 500GW hydrocarbon-free power, a renewable share of 50% of total energy supply, and a decline of the economy’s carbon concentration by 45%.^[45] It is apparent that the global efforts to reduce fossil fuel-based emissions move concurrently with the search for cleaner alternative energy sources. However, the pace of progress and the soundness of results remains to be seen.

9.      Some Broad Challenges

With the climate emergency high on the global agenda, it sounds as if the pressure is mounting, and the challenges are accumulating on the hydrocarbon industry. A survey by one authority on the subject, the University of Houston energy fellows, identified three salient industry challenges: the first one is the obligation to output additional energy more cost-effectively and with more inferior emissions. The second challenge is that the industry has to allocate around $500 billion annually to match the demand.^[46] On this same financing issue, and for the upstream Exploration and Production (E&P) part alone, JP Morgan’s head of Oil and Gas Research recognized in June that a $600 billion gap exists in investments required to satisfy worldwide oil and gas demand from 2021 to 2030.^[47] To continue, the survey’s third stated defiance for the oil and gas firms is presenting distinctive and lasting cash flows.^[48] The inference is that oil and gas organizations are expected to reduce costs, cut carbon emissions, and drive down risks. The fellows’ survey assured that efficiency improvement across the value chain should reduce costs, while adopting the best operational practices in tune with pursuing the technological evolution and spread should handle reducing carbon releases. However, the poll argued that the minimization of technical risk requires the development of improved reservoir models and superior conception, among others. One logical survey conclusion was that these three tendencies shall persist for many years in energy markets as they have become criteria for business survival and burgeoning.^[49]

On the human resources front, the Houston survey crucially underlines that oil and gas companies are finding difficulty attracting top-level competencies. Attractive remunerations and the stimulus of a captivating job seem not sufficient anymore. To allure the best talents, the firms strive to demonstrate that they are integrating climate change mitigation schemes into their functions. Also, to conceive proper means of addressing climate change, the big firms are recruiting adept and dedicated management executives. Notably, the university energy fellows’ study attributes much of the probable scarcity of youth choosing to work in the oil and gas profession to firms’ failure to manage carbon promptly and effectively. A chief energy officer for the University of Houston and one of the foremost researchers for the survey contends: “The younger generation is not seeing changes happening on the energy side – they are not seeing fast-enough progress. The industry needs to find ways to accelerate that progress and not just talk about it as research and development, but the truly commercial deployment of carbon management.”^[50] Hence, this human resources challenge could be added to the list of issues that might assist the industry to maintain its edge.

Additionally, on the responses of prime industry firms to the climate change threat, the Houston survey signals several initiatives. Some majors like Royal Dutch Shell and BP have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. Other large firms have ventured into avant-garde technologies.  Chevron is tinkering with biofuels from algae besides investing, like many other oil firms did, in a Canadian firm focused on technical methods to remove carbon from the atmosphere. ExxonMobil dabbled in a carbon trapping initiative put aside at the end of 2020. The oil giant also cooperates with Global Thermostat, which works in plain air grab. However, noting that the combined financial resources of the industry^[51] could count in multi-billion dollars^[52] and might exceed the financial capabilities of many nations, the study concludes that jobholders and young prospective employees believe that what the firms are doing on the climate change threat is not enough.^[53] A seemingly well-founded conclusion indeed.

10.   Few Specific Short-Term Challenges

For the particular shale oil and gas business, the consultant Deloitte finds that the altered underlying forces of the market have modified the financial prognosis and the range of possible alternatives for operating companies in the USA. The shale industry is expected to undergo significant changes, such as shrinking in size and falling more under the control of leading or consolidated repertoire of firms guided by data and information. Besides, the consulting firm reasonably argues that the more this sector becomes environment-friendly, the better its future outlook.^[54] Apparently, significant changes lie ahead for this relatively young industry.

Moreover, Deloitte’s outlook signaled an acceleration rather than a slowdown of the longevous tendencies witnessed in the oil and gas industry due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the last oil price slump. The energy transition trend and that of digital transformation represent stark examples. The outlook foresees a significant role for digitization in ensuring the effectiveness of the strategies of energy reformation in 2021. Importantly, the digital technology, apart from its routine functions and efficiency advantages, can have a crucial say in all what has to do with the sensitive issues of fixing and monitoring specific emissions objectives, adopting a prototypal and plausible disclosure of reports, and trailing accountableness all through the chain of command.^[55] All of that suggests a new central role and opportunity for digital technologies to ensure efficient governance of climate mitigation efforts and the coveted energy transition.

In terms of natural gas, Deloitte acutely finds it ambushed between the decarbonization obligations stipulating adherence to the development of alternative cleaner fuels and the wider inducement of substituting gas with energy from renewables in electric power generation. Also, other serious challenges look to be taking place for gas. The critical issue of leaking methane releases and the mounting adoption of electricity as an energy source are notable.^[56] It remains to be seen how this vital energy resource shall make it through the energy transition.

11.   Long Term Conundrums

A study by the leading consultant Mckinsey anticipates an even more demanding scene for the industry on the macro scale around the end of the next decade. The supply and demand considerations indicate that continuing accretion of fossil fuels demand, especially oil, shall be witnessed up to a climax in the 2030s before a tardy dwindle starts.^[57] Then, the extra capableness shall be tediously seeking markets in the refining sector, thus negatively affecting profits. Else, the cost base of E&P shall most probably maintain the same levels. Meanwhile, the threat from geopolitics on supplies shall not subside. Provisions quickly made accessible shall continue to flow from the pounded shale oil and gas subsector that could even see some improvement in stamina following sector consolidations by bigger contestants. Mckinsey maintains that the drop in demand led by the transition in the energy sector and the worldwide supply plethora shall put more pressure on OPEC and OPEC++.^[58]

Moreover, the consultant’s analysis expects a positive function in the energy transition for natural gas and LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) internationally, and a reserved spot for both in the energy assortment of the world to come. However, it contends that after 2035 gas shall have to confront challenges similar to oil in terms of demand top out and gradual economics leading the enacting of decisions.^[59] Further, Mckinsey predicts the defiance posed by the energy transition shall persist for long, similarly to the climate and environmental discourse. Also, thanks to innovative breakthroughs, the costs of wind, solar, and batteries shall continue to fall, with the industry’s decarbonization obligation standing firm.  The pressure from investors, creditors, and the unfavorable public attitude is expected to rise considerably.^[60] Investors who question the adequate profitability of the current oil and gas firms shall become more and more numerous. Also, the part to be played by these firms in the energy transition is still not clear. Hence, Mckinsey affirms that companies of this sector shall need to demonstrate their full field supremacy. It posits that vital for success will be the strictness in finances, the allotment of resources, and governance and riskiness administration.^[61] Consequently, the industry’s long-term prospects look very challenging and uncertain. Therefore, the concerned decision-makers are expected to exert complete focus, to thoroughly review the corporate and business strategies, to diligently exert extraordinary efforts, and to take initiatives to ensure proper implementation while allocating sufficient resources. All of that and much more could be needed to guarantee a soft landing amid the confusing era of energy transition and the changing climate threat.

12.   Prospective Ways out

In terms of alternative business opportunities, the IEA noted that some oil and gas companies have moved into new areas by acquiring existing non-core businesses, such as electricity distribution, electric vehicle charging, and batteries while stepping up research and development activity. However, the agency corroborates that a much more significant change in firms’ overall capital allocation would be required to accelerate energy transitions.^[62]

Moreover, the IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) validated many economic ways for oil and gas (O&G) firms to reduce their emissions from core operations. The SDS asserted that utmost priority should be given to implementing measures such as the critical methane emissions abatement, the cutting down of blazing associated gas and venting of Carbon Dioxide, the use of CCUS in refining, the incorporation of renewable energy and greener electricity in the brand new E&P, and LNG projects, the switch from oil to gas, and lastly efficiency enhancements.^[63]

Furthermore, the energy agency report markedly indicated that electrification and core operations’ emissions reduction altogether cannot handle the whole energy transition. An essential requirement from O&G companies is to maximize investment in eco-friendly hydrogen, biomethane, and modern biofuels. The importance of these alternatives is that they can offer the same energy gains as fossil fuels but without the harmful GHG emissions. The SDS set for these green combustibles a target of 15% of total placements in the provision of fuel to be attained in ten years.^[64]

On the other hand, the IEA report emphasized that the role of the O&G industry is essential in accelerating the maturing of major green energy technologies that require colossal capital investing. It held that the capabilities and expertise available in the hydrocarbon industry, especially among large firms, in terms of gigantic engineering and project management, enable it to offer a pivotal contribution in substantially lowering the costs of emissions abatement from the most difficult to dent segments. Possible avenues are the advancement of CCUS, the development of eco-friendly hydrogen and biofuels, in addition to the vast deployment of offshore wind.  Also, the agency study crucially specified that a significant advancement in deployment can ensue if the industry collaborates with states’ governance and other interested parties to develop feasible frameworks for colossal investments. Nevertheless, the energy agency signaled that O&G companies’ investments in low-carbon technologies development are still way behind those outside the sector.^[65] Yet, this last financial indicator confirms to a reasonable degree the before mentioned somehow spreading idea, among young talents especially, that O&G firms may not be doing enough in the global fight against climate change.

Additionally, on the possible courses of action, the world energy institution found that, though probably uncomfortable to them, some major oil and gas corporations can move into becoming “energy firms” rather than just “oil and gas” ones. IEA importantly argued that the switch enables the minimization of transition risks. Moreover, companies can supply different forms of energy from electricity to various fuels and energy-related consumer services. The agency acutely drew attention that one of the advantages of electricity is that it offers long-term growth chances, noting that it outruns oil in end-user energy expenditure. Another pivotal advantage is that electrification allows vaster and more significant cutbacks in enterprise’ emissions.^[66] Consequently, with such fundamental and lasting positives in favor of the switch to becoming energy firms, it appears very difficult and unlikely, at least for large O&G companies, not to proceed in this direction.

Conjointly, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2021 found that the sectors of fossil fuel, waste, and agriculture can considerably assist in filling the emissions gap and constrict climate overheating in the short term by reducing their harmful methane emissions.^[67]

Moreover, the environment program report directed that trading carbon in markets has an excellent potential to contribute in curbing emissions. However, this mandates a clear definition of rules aiming at effective emissions cutback, propped by a monitoring system that pursues advancement and offers translucency.^[68]

Another worthy means for beneficially lowering emissions could lie in cooperative implementation. Article 6.2 of the Paris Agreement^[69] stipulates that Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) can serve for nations to cooperate for reducing global carbon emissions by trading emissions abated by one country onto the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the purchasing nation. Such a cooperation possibility can help, for instance, Canada to meet tight 2030 climate objectives. Its government can capitalize on ITMOs to join hands with businesses to uphold tidier energies in the times to come. Specifically, the oil and gas industry can use ITMOs to help meet short and long-range climate targets and cooperate in developing systems that uphold a clean energy future.^[70]

In brief, although the challenges facing the industry are momentous, plenty of opportunities and courses of action might exist to pass this problematic transitory period with the minimum damage.

13.   Some Historical Landmarks

In facing such a vast and global climatic threat, it could be expedient to look back into the past for inspiration and lessons. The history of the world and the oil industry, particularly starting from the mid-nineteenth century, is ripe with imposing stories of accomplishments, technological breakthroughs, and ingenuity in facing severe universal challenges of different sorts. These accounts might be inspiringly motivating and beneficial in proving that the world governments and the O&G industry can and have successfully addressed in the past such massive issues of almost the same scale as the climate stalemate we are facing nowadays.

One imposing story is that of Shell company founder, the London trader Marcus Samuel. Solicit respects his inventive planning and swift execution of a gigantic coup on a global scale in 1892. He pioneeringly arranged to build and send the first well-designed large oil tanker of a series, the Murex, to cross the Suez canal for the first time. In so doing, he managed to overcome the competition and to break the robust dominance of Rockefeller’s Standard Oil company over kerosene world markets.[71]

Another worthy story is the conclave attempt initiated by Royal Dutch Shell’s top executive Henri Deterding following an adverse global oil glut in 1928. Deterding gathered some major oil firms, including the formerly Anglo Persian Oil Company (APOC), then backed by the British government. The assembly aimed to control competition and later production via the allegedly secret “As-Is” agreement.[72] Ironically, the top-level petroleum companies’ executives met in the Scottish Highlands at Achnacarry Castle, north of Glasgow. This latter is the same city where the COP26 climate change conference took place less than a century later to address the warming caused in part by the burning of the same petroleum whose production and market control initiated the earlier executives’ conclave.

Also, a notable historical event indicating that large-scale coordinated global endeavors can succeed is the 1947 US Marshall Plan. It was conducted after World War II for Western Europe following its economic disarray and the severe energy crisis. The plan was the first to conceive the idea of a wide, largely founded overseas assistance scheme to ensure the proper European recovery on a continental scale and to contain the danger of expanding Soviet influence to Europe.[73]

On the innovation front, memorable is how by 1879, problems with kerosene, gas, and candles engendered the game-changing invention of incandescent light by polymath inventor Thomas Alva Edison. The commercialization of his invention led to creating the world-changing power generation market.[74] Also marked is Henry Ford’s first “horseless carriage”  car in 1896. It was gasoline-driven and created a much-needed new market for oil at the exact moment when it was losing its primary kerosene-based illumination market for Edison’s electricity-related inventions.[75]

Furthermore, one of the controversial advantages of war is that it “constantly pushed the pace of innovation.”[76] Notable was the mechanization of warfare and the development of faster aircraft to go to higher altitudes. Indeed, the airplanes combined with the indispensable Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) and the higher octane fuel proved of dramatic significance. Nowadays, to effectively face the impending climate threat, it could be appropriate for the mighty world governments jointly with oil and gas firms, among others, to consider climate change as “the moral equivalent of war.”[77] US president Jimmy Carter in 1977 borrowed this sobriquet from William James to rally the nation around what he perceived as an energy crisis. Carter used that term when he presented his energy program to remodel the US energy condition. Perhaps the same sobriquet could be used nowadays to remodel the world energy sector against climate change.

Moreover, a revolutionizing technological breakthrough in chemistry occurred around 1909 with the invention of the “thermal cracking” refining process. Then, the research and development scientists’ team was driven by William Burton, a Johns Hopkins Ph.D. in chemistry and head of manufacturing for Standard Oil of Indiana. Right at the dawn of the gasoline age, the process has significantly increased the share of gasoline from a maximum of twenty percent of a crude barrel to a smashing forty-five percent. The process also introduced flexibility into refining output.[78] A similar revolutionizing innovation would be needed today to devise commercially viable eco-friendly fuels.

Also , a great example of the mighty organization and execution capabilities of nations under crisis is the US’ in World War II. Remarkably, that country supplied a whopping eighty percent of the Allies oil requirement for war, not without significant complications, however. The Fuel Administration was instrumental in “assuring efficient supplies, efficient distribution, and appropriate allocation”[79] for the multiple destinations, be it its American military, the Allies’, the US war industries, and the regular civilian demand. Notable also is the role of the National Petroleum War Service Committee headed by Standard Oil of New Jersey company; a demonstration of the then-new cooperation instead of the earlier contrast between the government and private businesses to meet war requirements. That committee was quite effective in organizing supplies for the war in Europe.[80] A similar cooperation between world powerful governments and leading petroleum firms among others, could be applied to address the global climate threat.

Furthermore, the contribution of Henry Doherty, who – interestingly out of context- said that “The greatest dividend in human life is happiness,”[81] reveals very significant and foreseeing for the oil industry. Doherty fiercely opposed “the rule of capture” and anticipated early the solution that “fields should be unitized.” He daringly called for federal involvement and public imposition of technologically advanced production methods. His challenging and persistent struggle for conservation in the oil industry solicits high respect. Notable is the effect this effort did with president Coolridge – elected in 1924 –  as he established  the Federal Oil Conservation Board.[82]

Another one of the many relevant historical milestones is the oil shock of 1973 and the ensuing significant adjustment process in the industrial world. With the IEA as an important instrument, the main aim of the developed nations in the middle of that decade was to effect a considerable modification of the “objective conditions” in the market sphere from which petroleum obtains its influence. Namely, the critical supply-demand equation and the vast dependence of the industrial world on oil. Consequently, countries each in its ways embraced energy policies that foster a diminishing reliance on imported oil. Markedly, the factors they thought would contribute to containing and reducing oil power were adopting different sources of power, the quest for various provenances of oil, and conservation.[83] Today, it becomes mandatory to change the objective conditions that caused climate warming,  starting with the excessive reliance on fossil fuels as an energy source in diverse sectors of the world economy. Therefore, alternative cleaner energy solutions are needed.

Noteworthy also, Japan’s government business push to further energy preservation and decrease oil utilization. The push has been instrumental in improving the country’s global business competitive edge. Far-reaching in effects is the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) study on the necessity of moving from “energy-intensive” to “knowledge-intensive” industry through focusing on utilizing the capital in the heads rather than the resources in the ground.[84] On the US front, notable among others is the ratification of the National Energy Act, being a significant turning point of the Carter administration. The Act has initiated the central reconciliation process of energy demand to the facilities.[85] Similarly, a global reconciliation process has to be initiated to match energy-related emissions to the mandatory climate mitigation requirements  in view of the current climate emergency.

Lastly, in the early 1980s, a wave of restructuring has hit the global market. One of the drivers for this restructuring was the institutional and influential investors’ pressure on oil and gas firms to yield higher returns.[86] Today, these same parties can influence oil and gas firms to make a substantial difference in accelerating climate change mitigation and the transition to cleaner energy sources.

Indeed, plenty of lessons and inspirations could be extracted from the world’s history under crisis and the O&G industry in particular. Be it in terms of the capacity of entrepreneurship, inventive planning, and massive mobilization; or of devising  global agreements, or of technological innovation, or of the mighty organization and execution capabilities, or of public imposition of technologically advanced production methods, or of changing the “objective conditions” in the global market place when facing global shocks.

14.   Lessons and Recommendations

As mentioned before, in these times, it would be appropriate for the powerful world governments and large oil and gas firms, among others, to consider climate change as “the moral equivalent of war.”[87] Accordingly, they need to mobilize similarly and escalate the tempo of research, development, and invention towards alleviating the climate change threat by, among others, finding and rapidly transitioning to new clean sources of energy.

Moreover, nations with the financial capabilities in trillions of dollars following a long history of economic development and fortune making thanks to oil, be it importing or exporting, could bail out the failing climate the same way they bailed out failing banks or institutions in 2008 for example.^[88] The oil and gas industry can assume a leading role, and deeply get involved to coordinate and arrange for an equitable spread of the climate rebalancing burden. The rewards for that effort may have already been cashed in advance. More rewards could also ensue in the future under different ecofriendly frameworks.

Governments’ involvement is called upon globally to prevent “the rule of capture” among oil-producing nations and firms. Also, to compel using technologically advanced and environmentally friendly production methods and, if necessary, establish a Global Climate Change Mitigation Board with enough executive and supervisory powers.

Similarly to their aforementioned prominent response upon the oil shock of 1973, the industrial nations in addition to the developing world this time, and to the oil and gas industry will have to collaborate and take all necessary global actions in order to change the “objective conditions” that are causing the climate chaos. One of the potential contributing measures could be establishing a carbon price benchmark for spot and futures carbon trading on the stock markets, similar to NYMEX’s WTI for crude oil. That benchmark can also stand firm as a climate mitigation indicator the same way as interest rates, gold, Dow Jones Industrial average, WTI, Brent, and other indispensable and closely watched indicators that follow the daily evolution of the global economy.^[89] Arguably, such a carbon trading system could help track the progression and funnel and supervise un-abatable carbon emissions, not to mention reducing them.

Three Mile Island,^[90] Chernobyl,^[91] and Fukushima^[92] nuclear accidents were for nuclear energy like the global warming threat and the resulting climate chaos are for fossil fuel-based energy, though with protracted and global effects rather than more concise and concentrated ones. Hence, a somehow equivalent response by all concerned ought to be embraced and with the appropriate scope.

Besides, after checking the financial capabilities^[93] of the large O&G corporations,^[94] and noting their glorious history of innovatively and diligently overcoming obstacles, it can be inferred that they might be very well positioned with their seemingly superior managerial expertise and resources to substantially expand their actions in favor of the ailing climate. In so doing, they could convey the image of a strong contributor to the wellbeing of the planet rather than to its calamitous global warming. Large scale adequately planned and coordinated global initiatives; investments properly managed, transparently monitored, acutely focused, and promptly executed appears like what the world urgently needs. The majors primarily and the independents can meet and agree on a program to vigorously contribute to saving the ailing planet, similar to what some industry leaders did when they met back in 1928 at Achnacarry Castle to save the oil industry from collapse due to chaotic oversupply. Today, with the climate emergency, the threat to the viability of the oil and gas industry is again genuine, perhaps existential, and solicits prompt attention and remedy on a global scale. A cosmic collaborative coup is called for at this juncture to help overcome the warming danger. A possible inspiration source could be the innovative, swift, comprehensive, and global entrepreneurial coup of Shell’s Marcus Samuel in 1892.

Additionally, market forces could achieve wonders thanks to the economic incentive of profit-making, which is needed today.  To assist in impeding the existential climate threat, strong profit making incentives to reward climate mitigation efforts are necessary. Many practical vehicles could exist, be it through carbon CCUS or via curbing methane emissions or through green hydrogen or biofuels, even by a massive deployment of renewables. A carefully crafted carbon tax might play a key role here, with measures to eliminate the free-riding possibility. The social cost of GHG emissions might need to be levied from now on. Being or announcing plans to become carbon neutral by 2040 or 2050 seems not enough. Apparently, much more needs to be done by the oil and gas industry. Rapidly enough, turning the existing GHG emissions gap into an excess safety margin of a clean emissions-free atmosphere ought to be the priority of the petroleum industry so that its longevity might be extended and the existential threat could be eliminated.

On the other hand, to ensure a sustainable demand or a minimum acceptable market for oil and gas, the O&G firms need to more intensely engage into devising creative solutions to meet the energy needs of current populations without compromising that of future generations. One possibility is by supporting the massive deployment of renewables and electric vehicles charged from clean electricity. The firms could invest further in the promising ventures serving this cause and in boosting the research and development (R&D) relevant to innovating ways of removing the GHG emissions generated from burning fossil fuels to allow them to still be used as an environment friendly energy source.

Furthermore,  only curbing emissions from operations appears not enough for the O&G industry to  confront and eliminate the existential threat. Much more seems to be required. A comprehensive approach and involvement need to extend beyond the frontiers of the value chain that stretches from upstream to downstream operations to market distribution. An integrative approach is sought after to ensure clean energy supply and utilization, not just oil and gas supply to the market. Similar to their integration strategy of exploration, production, refining, and distribution, now the industry ought to add clean energy supply to their mission, strategies, and operations.

In addition, emissions-free operation standards need to be harmonized, and certifications devised and persistently enforced to become a mandatory requirement among the various participants in the industry’s value chain. The required administering agencies have to be created if needed.

As importantly, boards of directors of large oil companies need to set more aggressive GHG emissions reduction targets for their executives and link it to a more significant chunk of their pay, both annual and LTIP. Ten percent seems not enough. Also, under the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) theme, the oil and gas firms could engage in green initiatives that support the environment, such as planting trees and promulgating sustainable forests or sustainable wood use. O&G firms can join hands with companies from outside the sector that are investing in R&D for new green fuels. Another avenue might be to partner with startups via incubators.^[95]  Yet, the O&G companies’ investments in low-carbon technologies development are still way behind those outside the sector.^[96] Hence, they better be amplified significantly.

15.   Conclusion

The oil and gas industry appears to face numerous crucial, and perhaps existential challenges. However, diverse alternatives seem at hand. On a broad scale, the industry needs to produce more in a markedly economical manner and with outstandingly lower emissions. Also, the changing underlying market dynamics and thus market outlook, make it more daunting to annually ensure the necessary financing of a whopping half a trillion dollars to satisfy the demand. Equally challenging is the requirement of maintaining solid and lasting cash flows. Consequently, oil and gas organizations ought to reduce costs, curtail carbon emissions, and drive down risks. Also, with their sizeable financial capabilities and resources, they will need to exhibit a more convincing, tangible, and brisk contribution in the global effort against climate change, to induce young and top-level talents to pursue a career with them.

On a narrower scope, the shale oil and gas sector is anticipated to undergo a considerable transformation, like a diminishing in size and an increased dominance from leading or consolidated repertoire of firms guided by data and information. Also, the further this sector becomes environment-friendly, the better its future outlook may become. Likewise, the challenges facing natural gas seem of no less gravity. It looks trapped between the decarbonization obligations and the wider inducement of substituting gas with energy from renewables in electric power generation. Also, the issue of methane emissions and the mounting adoption of electricity as an energy source weigh heavily on this vital commodity.

Additionally, around the end of the next decade, a more complex industry scene on the macro scale looms on the horizon. The demand is expected to peak sometime in the 2030s before declining. The drop in demand led by the transition in the energy sector and the worldwide supply plethora will put more pressure on OPEC and OPEC++.  After 2035 gas could have to confront challenges similar to oil in terms of demand top out and gradual economics leading decisions.  Further, the defiance posed by the energy transition seems to persist for long similarly to the climate and environmental discourse.  Thanks to innovative breakthroughs, the costs of wind, solar, and batteries shall most likely continue to fall, with the industry’s decarbonization obligation standing firm.  The pressure from investors, creditors, and the unfavorable public attitude is expected to rise considerably. Vital for success could be the strictness in finances, the intelligent allotment of resources, plus governance and riskiness tight administration.

In addition, a much more significant change in the overall capital allocation of O&G firms would be required to accelerate the energy transition.  Also, plenty of economical ways exist for the firms to reduce their emissions from core operations. These must be given utmost priority. Key as well is the maximization of investments in eco-friendly hydrogen, biomethane, and modern biofuels. Additionally, a significant advancement in deployment can ensue if the industry collaborates with states’ governance and other interested parties to develop feasible frameworks for massive environmental remediation. Still, the role of the O&G industry is essential in accelerating the maturing of major green energy technologies that require colossal capital investing. The industry ought to boost investments in low-carbon technologies development to at least match those made by firms from outside the industry. Also, to minimize transition risks, the capable major oil and gas firms could expand, if not done yet, into becoming energy firms.

Moreover, buying and selling carbon in markets appear to have a good potential to contribute to curbing emissions. It needs to be adequately organized via vehicles such as a carbon price benchmark for spot and futures carbon trading on the stock markets. Besides, the oil and gas industry could use ITMOs to help meet short and long-range climate targets, while it cooperates in developing systems that uphold a clean energy future.

This very day, with the climate change imperilment, the threat to the viability of the oil and gas industry seems again genuine, even existential, and solicits prompt attention and remedy on a global scale. A cosmic collaborative coup is called for at this juncture to overcome the warming danger. Building on the glorious industry history, large-scale well planned, and coordinated global initiatives, investments properly managed, transparently monitored, acutely focused and promptly executed seem like what the world urgently needs. The majors primarily and the independents need to meet and agree on a program to contribute to evading this universal menace vigorously. Reversing the existing GHG emissions gap into an excess safety margin of a clean emissions-free atmosphere ought to be the priority of the oil and gas industry so that its longevity could be extended and the existential threat eliminated.

Moreover, the O&G firms need to more intensely engage in devising creative solutions to meet the energy demands of the current populations without compromising that of future generations. Also, supporting the massive deployment of renewables and electric vehicles charged from clean electricity appears to be of significance. The industry could invest further in the promising ventures serving the climate cause and in boosting the research and development (R&D) relevant to innovating ways of economically removing the GHG emissions from fossil fuels while at the same time, they could still be used as an energy source.

On the other hand, market forces when activated, could do marvels. To help in  thwarting the possible existential climate threat, strong incentives to make profits via climate mitigation efforts are necessary. Also, a comprehensive approach and involvement need to extend beyond the frontiers of the industry’s value chain. An integrative modus operandi is sought after that reaches out to ensure clean energy supply and utilization, not just oil and gas supply to the market. The industry needs to incorporate clean energy supply into its mission, strategies, and operations. Additionally, emission-free operation standards ought to be harmonized, and certifications devised and persistently enforced to become a mandatory requirement among the various participants in the value chain. The required administering agencies ought to be created if needed.

Not least, boards of directors of large oil companies need to set more aggressive GHG emissions reduction targets for their executives and to link them to a more significant chunk of their pay, both annual and LTIP. Also, under the CSR theme, the oil and gas firms need to engage in green initiatives that support the environment, such as recycling, planting trees, and promulgating sustainable forests or sustainable wood use. Noting that their investments in the development of low-carbon technologies look still way behind that of companies outside the sector, O&G companies can join hands with other firms external to their province who are investing in R&D for new green fuels. Another alley might be to partner with startups via incubators.

Lastly, it appears vital that the potent governments of the globe, the large oil and gas concerns, and the independents, among others, treat climate change as “the moral equivalent of war,” and thus effectively collaborate to confront and mobilize accordingly so to modify the “objective conditions” that caused it. En route, hydrocarbons’ hallowed industry might pitch on novel paths that could reward it with a needful renewed and sustainable prosperity.

Acknowledgments

I would like to extend my appreciation to Dr. Norbert Edomah for his meticulous and comprehensive review, and to Pr. Laurent Cleenewerck for his valued contribution and oversight. I also wish to thank EUCLID University and the Intergovernmental Research and Policy Journal for giving me the opportunity to appropriately and broadly present this research.

Conflict of Interest

The author has no conflicts of interest to declare. There are no co-authors, and there is no financial interest to report. I certify that the submission is original work and is not under review at any other publication.

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[1] “E.F. Schumacher | British Economist | Britannica,” accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.britannica.com/biography/E-F-Schumacher.

[2] “National Coal Board, Records – Archives Hub,” accessed January 11, 2022, https://archiveshub.jisc.ac.uk/data/gb214-dncb.

[3] Daniel Yergin, The Prize (New York, London, Toronto, Sydney: Free Press, 2008), 503.

[4] “Air Pollution,” accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.who.int/westernpacific/health-topics/air-pollution.

[5] “Water Contamination | Other Uses of Water | Healthy Water | CDC,” last modified October 26, 2018, accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.cdc.gov/healthywater/other/agricultural/contamination.html.

[6] “Water Pollution,” accessed January 11, 2022, https://wwf.panda.org/discover/knowledge_hub/teacher_resources/webfieldtrips/water_pollution/.

[7] E. O. Wilson and Frances M. Peter, The Loss of Diversity Causes and Consequences, Biodiversity (National Academies Press (US), 1988), accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK219310/.

[8] “Trends in Solid Waste Management,” accessed January 11, 2022, https://datatopics.worldbank.org/what-a-waste/trends_in_solid_waste_management.html.

[9] “OECD-G20-Paper-Innovation-and-Green-Transition.Pdf,” n.d., 2, accessed November 30, 2021, https://www.oecd.org/g20/summits/osaka/OECD-G20-Paper-Innovation-and-Green-Transition.pdf.

[10] Ibid.

[11] Ibid., 4.

[12] Yergin, The Prize, 504.

[13] “Dethroning King Coal,” World Economic Forum, accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2013/08/dethroning-king-coal/.

[14] Yergin, The Prize, 510.

[15] Ibid.

[16] Ibid., 511.

[17] Ibid.

[18] “The Paris Agreement | UNFCCC,” accessed October 28, 2021, https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement.

[19] “WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (Published Annually),” last modified October 20, 2015, accessed January 11, 2022, https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/library/wmo-greenhouse-gas-bulletin.

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[21] “Updated NDC Synthesis Report: Worrying Trends Confirmed | UNFCCC,” accessed October 26, 2021, https://unfccc.int/news/updated-ndc-synthesis-report-worrying-trends-confirmed.

[22] Ibid.

[23] United Nations, “All About the NDCs,” United Nations (United Nations, n.d.), accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/all-about-ndcs.

[24] “Updated NDC Synthesis Report: Worrying Trends Confirmed | UNFCCC.”

[25] Nairobi, “Emissions Gap Report 2021: The Heat Is On – A World of Climate Promises Not Yet Delivered” (United Nations Environment Programme, 2021), https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2021.

[26] “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions – Analysis,” IEA, accessed October 25, 2021, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-oil-and-gas-industry-in-energy-transitions.

[27] “Changes in the Average Global Emissions Intensity of Oil and Natural Gas Operations in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2018-2030 – Charts – Data & Statistics,” IEA, accessed October 28, 2021, https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/changes-in-the-average-global-emissions-intensity-of-oil-and-natural-gas-operations-in-the-sustainable-development-scenario-2018-2030.

[28] “Fossil Fuel Production ‘Dangerously out of Sync’ with Climate Change Targets,” UN News, last modified October 20, 2021, accessed October 26, 2021, https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/10/1103472.

[29] Ibid.

[30] Ibid.

[31] “Net Zero by 2050 – Analysis,” IEA, accessed October 30, 2021, https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050.

[32] “Advanced Batteries & Energy Storage Research by IDTechEx,” Advanced Batteries & Energy Storage Research, accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.advancedbatteriesresearch.com/.

[33] “Hydrogen Production: Electrolysis,” Energy.Gov, accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-electrolysis.

[34] “Direct Air Capture – Analysis,” IEA, accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.iea.org/reports/direct-air-capture.

[35] “Pathway to Critical and Formidable Goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Is Narrow but Brings Huge Benefits, According to IEA Special Report – News,” IEA, accessed October 30, 2021, https://www.iea.org/news/pathway-to-critical-and-formidable-goal-of-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-is-narrow-but-brings-huge-benefits.

[36] “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions – Analysis,” 7.

[37] “Pathway to Critical and Formidable Goal of Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Is Narrow but Brings Huge Benefits, According to IEA Special Report – News.”

[38] Ibid.

[39] “Climate Report Exposes Fault Lines Within Fossil Fuel Industry,” Bloomberg.Com, August 10, 2021, accessed October 26, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-10/climate-report-exposes-fault-lines-within-fossil-fuel-industry.

[40] Ibid.

[41] PricewaterhouseCoopers, “ESG – What’s It All about?,” PwC, accessed January 11, 2022, https://www.pwc.com/mt/en/publications/sustainability/esg-what-is-it-all-about.html.

[42] Bob Woods, “Big Oil CEOs Have a Personal Reason to Put More Focus on Less Fossil Fuels,” CNBC, last modified October 17, 2021, accessed October 26, 2021, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/17/big-oil-ceos-have-personal-reason-to-focus-more-on-less-fossil-fuels-.html.

[43] Ibid.

[44] “World Leaders Kick Start Accelerated Climate Action at COP26 | UNFCCC,” accessed November 3, 2021, https://unfccc.int/news/world-leaders-kick-start-accelerated-climate-action-at-cop26.

[45] Ibid.

[46] University of Houston Energy Fellows, “Challenges And Trends For The Oil And Gas Industry,” Forbes, accessed October 23, 2021, https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2021/03/10/challenges-and-trends-for-the-oil-and-gas-industry/.

[47] Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com), “Energy Crisis: Harsh Winter Would Add Fuel to Climate Change Fire | DW | 29.09.2021,” DW.COM, accessed October 26, 2021, https://www.dw.com/en/energy-crisis-harsh-winter-would-add-fuel-to-climate-change-fire/a-59335095.

[48] Fellows, “Challenges And Trends For The Oil And Gas Industry.”

[49] Ibid.

[50] Ibid.

[51] “What Percentage of the Global Economy Is the Oil and Gas Drilling Sector?,” Investopedia, accessed November 5, 2021, https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030915/what-percentage-global-economy-comprised-oil-gas-drilling-sector.asp.

[52] “Top 10 Highest-Earning Oil and Gas Companies in 2021,” accessed November 5, 2021, https://www.offshore-technology.com/analysis/top-10-highest-earning-oil-gas-companies-2021-2020/.

[53] University of Houston Energy Fellows, “Oil And Gas Industry Must Get Serious About Climate Change To Compete For Millennial And Gen Z Workforce,” Forbes, accessed October 23, 2021, https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2021/01/12/oil-and-gas-industry-must-get-serious-about-climate-change-to-compete-for-millennial-and-gen-z-workforce/.

[54] “2021 Oil and Gas Industry Outlook,” Deloitte United States, accessed October 23, 2021, https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/oil-and-gas-industry-outlook.html.

[55] Ibid.

[56] Ibid.

[57] “Oil and Gas after COVID-19: The Day of Reckoning or a New Age of Opportunity? | McKinsey,” accessed October 23, 2021, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/oil-and-gas-after-covid-19-the-day-of-reckoning-or-a-new-age-of-opportunity.

[58] Ibid.

[59] Ibid.

[60] Ibid.

[61] Ibid.

[62] “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions – Analysis,” 7.

[63] Ibid., 8.

[64] Ibid., 9.

[65] Ibid., 10.

[66] Ibid., 12.

[67] U. N. Environment, “Emissions Gap Report 2021,” UNEP – UN Environment Programme, last modified October 25, 2021, accessed October 27, 2021, http://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2021.

[68] Ibid.

[69] “Cooperative Implementation | UNFCCC,” accessed November 23, 2021, https://unfccc.int/process/the-paris-agreement/cooperative-implementation.

[70] Citlali Cruz Cruz and John Steen, “COP26: Strong Carbon-Trading Rules Could Help the World Avoid Dangerous Levels of Global Warming,” The Conversation, accessed November 23, 2021, http://theconversation.com/cop26-strong-carbon-trading-rules-could-help-the-world-avoid-dangerous-levels-of-global-warming-151172.

[71] Yergin, The Prize, 61–2.

[72] Ibid., 238.

[73] Ibid., 380.

[74] Ibid., 70.

[75] Ibid., 71.

[76] Ibid., 154.

[77] Ibid., 596.

[78] Ibid., 100.

[79] Ibid., 160.

[80] Ibid.

[81] Ibid., 199.

[82] Ibid., 190–200.

[83] Ibid., 589.

[84] Ibid.

[85] Ibid., 598.

[86] Ibid., 655.

[87] Ibid., 596.

[88] Ibid., 711–12.

[89] Ibid., 654.

[90] Ibid., 622.

[91] Ibid., 704.

[92] “The Environmental Impact of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster,” accessed November 24, 2021, http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2016/ph241/dong1/.

[93] “What Percentage of the Global Economy Is the Oil and Gas Drilling Sector?”

[94] “Top 10 Highest-Earning Oil and Gas Companies in 2021.”

[95] Liz Hampton, “Big Oil Courts U.S. Clean-Energy Startups in Bid to Speed Green Transition,” Reuters, October 5, 2021, sec. Sustainable Business, accessed November 30, 2021, https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/big-oil-courts-us-clean-energy-startups-bid-speed-green-transition-2021-10-05/.

[96] “The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions – Analysis,” 10.